eVTOL are flying vehicles that can vertically take off or land through electric engines. With the development of the electric vehicle industry, upstream components such as motors, batteries and power controllers are becoming more and more mature, creating conditions for the birth of the eVTOL industry. In the future, eVTOL will become an important part of urban air transportation.

 In terms of application scenarios: 

1）Taking eVTOL can reach Pudong Airport from Hongqiao Railway Station in 20 minutes, which is 5 times faster than taking the subway and 3 times faster than taking a car; 

2）eVTOL can connect Shanghai and surrounding cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, etc. EVTOL's 200km/h speed can make inter-city traffic faster and more comfortable, forming a "one-hour traffic circle" in the Yangtze River Delta; 

3）eVTOL can also be used in emergency rescue, tourism, and many other fields.

eVTOL Industry Is on A Turing Point

       The concept of eVTOL was first formally proposed by American Helicopter Society (AHS) and American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) in 2014, and aroused the interest of many big companies including Airbus and Boeing. In the following years, related start-ups continued to emerge in Europe and the United States. There were once more than 100 related companies in this industry. So far, after industry consolidation, several companies with advanced technology and abundant funding have become the leaders in this game, such as Archer, Joby, Lilium, and Volocopter. 

From 2020 to 2021, the new energy automobile industry experienced explosive growth, and eVTOL industry has also come to a turning point. Its value has gradually recognized by the market and we saw a massive influx of investment to this industry. By the end of June 2021, the leading companies have accumulated more than 3 billion USD investment.

 Joby Aviation got IPO in NSADAQ by SPAC on 11^thAugust 2021, and the other players’ IPO is in progress.

Morgan Stanley's three different forecasts for the future market size of the eVTOL industry: 1) Under the optimistic scenario of rapid technological development and high political support, Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market space for eVTOL will reach $2.9 trillion by 2040; 

2) Under the scenario of neutral external conditions, the global market space is expected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2040; 

3) In the most pessimistic forecast, the industry's market value will reach $615 billion by 2040.

But no matter in which case, according to Morgan Stanley’s expectation, China is always going to be the biggest market for eVTOL.

 Does eVTOL Perfectly Satisfies People's Imagination of Future Travelling Modes?

1.    The safety of eVTOL is stronger than that of helicopters.First, most eVTOL designs have multiple rotors. So, there is fault tolerance for the failure of one of the electric engines. Even if a single rotor has problem, the other rotors can still help the vehicle land safely. Not to mention the motor has a much lower probability of failure compared with helicopters. Secondly, the overall design of eVTOL is simpler than that of helicopters, with fewer components and a higher degree of integration. This helps improve the safety of the vehicle, making it easier to maintain and reducing the failure rate.

2.    The takeoff, landing and cruising noise of eVTOL is much lower than that of helicopters. The takeoff and landing noise of eVTOL is around 70dB, while the cruising noise is around 50dB. For comparison, the takeoff and cruise noise of helicopters are around 140dB and 90dB respectively. The ultra-low noise level allows the eVTOL to operate inside cities without disturbing the public, which is a huge advantage of eVTOL.

3.    The cost of eVTOL is far lower than that of helicopters.The price of an eVTOL is estimated to be around $4 million, and there is room for further reduction in cost and price after doing mass production. However, the price of a small private helicopter Mi 171 is around $46.2 million and the price of Kaman K-1200 is around $39.2 million. At the same time eVTOL's maintenance cost is also lower. Estimations show that the direct operation cost of eVTOL is less than 1/10 of that of a helicopter.

4.    eVTOL is more friendly to the environment. There is no need for fuel transportation and storage system, and no requirement for aprons being equipped with fuel depots. As long as the electricity comes from clean energy, eVTOL can achieve zero pollution and 0 emission during operation. It’s much more friendly to city and natural environments. 

 eVTOL in China

The popular expectation is that China will become the largest market as well as the largest manufacturing base for eVTOL in the future. The eVTOL industry has a promising future and is in line with China’s latest "double carbon" target. 

At present, many industry experts and start-up companies have entered eVTOL industry and have also received attention from investment institutions. But still in early stage. Among them, Volant Aviation has strong engineering capabilities and rich certifying experience, having the potential to become a leader in the eVTOL industry in China. It has received support from investment institutions such as Ventech China and Shunwei Capital.

Related technologies are gradually maturing.

 Low-altitude policy is becoming more and more friendly.

 In addition to low-altitude airspace policies, the certification system of China's aviation bureau also has improved. After the development of ARJ-21, C919 and other large aircrafts, China's regulations in the field of aviation component manufacturing and entire aircraft manufacturing are becoming more and more perfect. Under the extremely strict requirements, the ability to obtain certifications has become an important criterion to measure whether a company is excellent or not. As a new type of aircraft, eVTOL's regulation standard is different from those of traditional helicopters or large planes. The development of eVTOL certification standard requires continuous communication and cooperation between the industry and regulatory agencies (FAA, EASA, CAAC, etc.). The company that gets certification first will undoubtedly take the first-mover advantage. However, at present, the certification standard of eVTOL in various countries are still unclear, and no company has officially got the certification yet.

Prosperous Future:

In summary, eVTOL aircraft has the advantages of low noise, low cost, high safety and environmental-friendly. And it has the potential to operate within cities, between cities and suburbs, and between cities in close proximity. The elements affecting the development of eVTOL industry are mainly technical and policy factors: among them, technical factors determine whether eVTOL can be economical and safe; policy factors determine whether eVTOL can get the certifications for commercial operation quickly. 

At present, there are several foreign eVTOL enterprises with very advanced technology, abundant resources, and huge financing. And domestic giants are also making investment to this industry, including Tencent and Geely. However, it is still in infancy in China.

eVTOL is a very promising industry, with a market potential no less than electric vehicle, and may cause a revolution in urban transportation. Just like what China has achieved in the field of electric vehicles, eVTOL can also be an opportunity for China to catch up with Europe and the United States in the field of civil aviation. Although the maturity of this industry still needs time to accumulate, but all kinds of policy changes seem to have heralded the coming dawn.